What happened on Friday | interest.co.nz
Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The BNZ, the ASB and the TSB all hiked fixed mortgage rates today. More here.
CHANGES IN TERM DEPT RATES
ASB also raised the rates on term deposits between +5 bps (for 90 days) and +40 bps (for 3 and 4 years).
THE FRAMEWORK AT 90%
The government published its new traffic light framework and it was generally praised by the business community for the clarity of its offerings. Others are not so sure. It’s a plan for when a 90% immunization goal is reached (or what if it isn’t). It offers more support to businesses and low-income people in the meantime.
BANKERS THINK IT WILL GET HARDER
An update of the RBNZ survey of banks shows mortgage demand was strong in September, but nowhere near as strong as it was six months earlier. The same survey shows that bankers expect demand for loans to decline over the next six months. (C60) The same survey shows that bankers believe that the availability of credit has weakened and will also become much lower over the next six months, for home loans. But those same bankers are much more optimistic about the outlook for businesses and the agricultural market. Interestingly, they see the regulatory changes as very negative and risk perceptions are receding. But they also see customer balance sheets improving significantly.
Auckland’s population has plummeted to 1.716 mln during the year until June (even if it was only a small slip), and for the first time “since the beginning of the records”. The Super City joins the West Coast and Southland as the only areas of New Zealand with declining populations. (The first New Zealand census was taken in 1851.)
PACKAGING OF PERSONAL LOANS
Harmoney’s Australian firm has just securitized AU $ 105 million from its personal loan portfolio. Moody’s gave it 66% of its highest Aaa rating, and 85% of it an investment rating.
JAPAN IS IMPROVING
Japan has inflation in september, a turnaround from the deflation it experienced in August. Its factories and service sector are both expanding in October, according to a very followed investigation, and it’s also a good improvement.
Evergrande is in even more trouble, and possibly even in agony. In statements filed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange where it is listed, it noted his efforts to sell a key division to generate funds had failed, and he also said he may no longer be able to meet his financial obligations. Investors who own its shares see their value plummet now that a trading halt is over.
ONE MORE TODAY
There are 129 new community cases of COVID-19 in report today; 120 in Auckland and nine in Waikato. As of 10 a.m., 64 of those cases are linked – including 30 family contacts – and 65 remain unrelated.
AUSSIE PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia Delta case in victoria have increased to 2,189 reported cases there today, so no real improvement again. There are now 23,230 active cases in the state and there were 16 more deaths yesterday. In NSW there was another 345 new community cases reported today with 5,037 active locally acquired cases, which is less, and they had five deaths yesterday. Queensland is report a new case. ACT has 13 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 71% of eligible Australians are fully vaccinated, and 15% have only had one injection so far. In contrast, there were five new cases in New Zealand at the border, and 129 new community cases. Now, 85.8% of Kiwis aged 12 and over nationwide have had at least one vaccination, and the Australian rate is now also 85.8% of all ages 16 and over.
At the start of Asian trading, gold has changed little since yesterday, now at US $ 1,786 / oz.
QUIET ACTIONS AT THE END TO CAPTURE A GOOD WEEK
The NZX50 is slightly firmer at the end of the session, but only up + 0.1%. For the week, it is heading for a gain of + 1.0%. The ASX200 is stable in early Friday afternoon and is heading for a weekly increase of + 0.7%. The very large Tokyo market opened today up + 0.2% in morning trading but faces a weekly decline of -1.1%. Hong Kong has opened + 0.4% and is heading for a stellar weekly rise of + 3.7%, but Shanghai has opened + 0.1% in its opening trade and if that holds, it will have a weekly gain of + 0.8%. The S & P500 started off weak, but ended stronger at the end of its Thursday session, up + 0.3%. Over the first four days of the week, it is up + 1.7%.
THE RATES OF SWAPS AND BONDS ARE STILL INCREASING
We don’t have today’s one closing swap rate Again. They probably have flat lines. The 90-day bank note rate is unchanged at 0.74% as markets determine the pace of upcoming OCR hikes. The benchmark ten-year Australian government rate is now at 1.83% and down -1bp from where we were yesterday at this time. The 10-year Chinese government is now at 2.99% and down -3 basis points. The 10-year New Zealand government rate is now at 2.44% and unchanged. This leaves them just above the previous RBNZ fix for that 10-year rate at 2.43% (+6bp). The ten-year US government is up +3 basis points from yesterday at 1.69%.
NZ DOLLAR EVEN MORE FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up again, now at 72.6 USc and a further gain of +50 basis points in one day. Against the Aussie, we are firmer at 96 AUc. Against the euro, we are down slightly to 61.6 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 75.1 and remains well above the top of the 72-74 range we’ve been in for most of the past eleven months.
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The price of bitcoin is now at US $ 62,763, 2.7% lower than at the same time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been elevated to just over +/- 3.7%.
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